Number of Filipinos living with HIV has more than tripled in the last decade

DURBAN (July 19, 2016). The number of new HIV infections and the number of people living with the disease has more than tripled over the past decade in the Philippines. Only 33% of the more than 273,000 Filipinos living with HIV receive the antiretroviral (ARTs) drugs that slow the disease’s progression. Beyond the Philippines, the world faces “significant challenges” in ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030.

AIDS deaths are falling in most countries worldwide, but the rate of new infections increased in several countries over the past decade, threatening to undermine efforts to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030 as shown by a new scientific paper.

The study from the Global Burden of Disease collaborative network published today in The Lancet HIV, found that 74 countries saw increases in age-standardized rates of new infections between 2005 and 2015, including: the Philippines, Cambodia, Egypt, Pakistan, Kenya, and Mexico.

The new research, released at the International AIDS Conference in Durban, South Africa, also found that while the global number of new cases continues to decline, the pace has greatly slowed. New infections of HIV fell by only an average of 0.7 percent per year between 2005 and 2015, compared to the 2.7 percent drop per year between 1997 and 2005.

The study is based on findings from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) coordinated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle. With more than 1,700 collaborators in 124 countries, the GBD is the largest and most comprehensive effort in measuring epidemiological levels and trends worldwide.

“If this trend of stubbornly high new infections continues, there will be significant challenges in meeting the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal for the world to witness the end AIDS in less than 15 years,” says IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. “Everyone in population health – researchers, policy-makers, practitioners, pharmaceutical companies, advocates, and others – needs to understand that even if more people are living with HIV, we cannot end AIDS without stopping new infections.”

The number of new HIV infections in the Philippines has increased more in the last decade than in any of its Southeast Asian neighbors. Between 2005 and 2015, the number of new HIV cases grew by an average of 11.4% per year in the Philippines, while rates decreased over the same time period in Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Additionally, the Philippines’ ART coverage is 33%, far below the global average.

This combination of increasing numbers of new infections and low ART coverage has contributed to the rise in Filipinos living with HIV. In 2005, 85,800 Filipinos had HIV, and in 2015, that number more than tripled to 273,650. However, the number of Filipinos dying from the disease has decreased slowly during that time, from 4,360 in 2005 to 3,550 in 2015.

“Since the new HIV cases much increased in the last decade, the country needs to enhance further the health promotion and preventive activities. Besides, the universal coverage of ART should be targeted, including in remote places. Special efforts should be carried out to prevent transmission through sex workers and IV drug use,” explained Dr. Soewarta Kosen, Coordinator of the Health Economics & Policy Analysis Unit at NIHRD and collaborator of the study.

Professor Peter Piot, who is the director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and was the founding executive director of UNAIDS, also remarked on the paper’s findings.

“This study shows that the AIDS epidemic is not over by any means and that HIV/AIDS remains one of the biggest public health threats of our time,” Professor Piot says. “The continuing high rate of over 2 million new HIV infections represents a collective failure which must be addressed through intensified prevention efforts and continued investment in HIV vaccine research.”

The study examines HIV mortality, prevalence, and incidence between 1980 and 2015, and it is part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 that provides comprehensive population health estimates on diseases, injuries, and related risk factors.

In contrast to the overall slow decline in new infections, the number of people living with HIV has significantly increased globally largely due to the expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART). IHME estimates there were about 39 million people globally living with HIV in 2015, as compared to 28 million in 2000.

In 2015, 41 percent of the people living with HIV were using ART, as compared to less than 2 percent in 2000.

“We’re keeping people alive longer, and these numbers should give those using antiretroviral therapies considerable hope,” says IHME Associate Professor Dr. Haidong Wang, the lead author on the study. Such improvement, however, is still far away from the ambitious 90-90-90 goals set by the global community for the year 2020. Those goals aim for 90% of people living with HIV knowing their HIV status, 90% of people diagnosed with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy, and 90% of people receiving antiretroviral therapy experiencing viral suppression.

“The Global Burden of Diseases HIV study provides critical health information to help shape and support national and global decision making,” said Peter Hayward, editor of The Lancet HIV. “The estimates are also key to strengthening accountability to ensure that promises made by politicians and policy makers with regards to specific HIV targets are being delivered.”

The results of IHME’s study underscore the need for more effective efforts to prevent new infections, as well as additional funding for these efforts. This analysis shows that Development Assistance for Health (DAH) dedicated to HIV/AIDS grew the fastest between 2000 and 2009, yet such funding has been stagnated since 2010. According to Financing Global Health 2015, a report published last year by IHME (http://www.healthdata.org/health-financing), annual funding globally for HIV/AID peaked at US$11.2 billion in 2013, but dropped to US$10.8 billion in 2015. With a slowdown in the decline of new infections and funding for HIV/AIDS, it will be challenging to achieve the goal set by the global community to end AIDS by 2030.

The entire HIV report, “Estimates of global, regional and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: The Global Burden of Disease Study, 2015,” is available at www.healthdata.org