Charles Teves
Economist Edson Guido has refuted Presidential spokesperson Harry Roque’s claim that the only reason the Philippines has a surge in coronavirus cases is because of more testing.
While it is true that the country’s testing capacity has improved, there are still more people getting infected than getting tested.
Totoong tumaas ang testing sa Pilipinas. Ito ang mga average per day:
May
8,080 tests, 434 positiveJune
12,877 tests, 819 positiveJuly
25,476 tests, 2,834 positivePero kita rin sa datos na mas mabilis ang pagtaas ng mga nagpopositibo kaysa sa natetest. pic.twitter.com/rbEoWLdOBc
— Edson (@EdsonCGuido) August 9, 2020
So the main reason cases are increasing is that the transmission of the disease is also up, not just because of mass testing.
More and more people are contracting the disease who don’t even get tested.
Ibig sabihin ang pagtaas ng kaso ay hindi lang dahil sa testing. Mas mataas din ang transmission.
Nung June ay nasa 6% ang positivity rate nung unang dalawang linggo. Nitong mga nakaraang linggo, nasa 12-13%
Kung dati sa 100 na natetest, 6 ang positibo. Ngayon 12 to 13. Doble. pic.twitter.com/QyL17hpJ0P
— Edson (@EdsonCGuido) August 9, 2020
The positivity rate was supposed to see a significant decrease, but unfortunately, that is not seen in the country.
Pag tumaas ang testing capacity, pababa dapat ang positivity rate.
Dati kasi yun mga vulnerable lang ang natetest kaya mas likely na may COVID sila. Ngayon, pwede na natin isama sa testing ang ibang mga grupo, kaya dapat mas mababa ang positivity rate.
Hindi natin ito nakikita.
— Edson (@EdsonCGuido) August 9, 2020
The amount of testing shouldn’t be a basis on why a country has relatively more cases, said Guido.
Totoo bang mas marami tayong naitatalang kaso kasi tayo ang may pinakamaraming natetest sa rehyon?
Ito ba ang tamang batayan? Mas mataas ang positivity rate ng Indonesia. Mas marami ring namamatay so maaring underreported ang kaso. So valid ang argument.https://t.co/iFLu5roX64
— Edson (@EdsonCGuido) August 9, 2020
But the positivity rate is a good basis.
Other Asian countries like South Korea, Malaysia, and Singapore do not test as much anymore since their transmission rate is now lower.
Pero sa South Korea? Singapore? Malaysia?
Kaya mas konti ang natetest nila ngayon ay dahil… (SURPRISE) mas mababa narin talaga ang transmission sa mga bansang yan.
Paano ka makakapagtest ng 30,000 per day… kung wala namang nagpapatest diba? Dapat tignan ang positivity rate.
— Edson (@EdsonCGuido) August 9, 2020
Ang Indonesia gaya ng sinabi ko kanina ay mas mataas ang positivity rate kaysa sa Pilipinas.
Pero ang South Korea, Malaysia at Singapore ay talagang mas mababa na. Nung mababa pa ang testing capacity natin ay mataas na ang kanila kaya hindi ito tungkol sa kakayahang magtest.
— Edson (@EdsonCGuido) August 9, 2020
Guido is however proud of the fact that the testing capacity has seen a significant improvement. It would be most ideal if the country’s positivity rate would go lower than 5 percent in 2 weeks’ time.
Magandang balita na tumaas na ang ating testing. May mga araw na nalalagpasan ang 30,000 tests per day.
Pero dapat pang dagdagan ito dahil nakikita natin na merong local transmission.
At ang goal ay dapat mapababa ang positivity rate ng 5% or lower sa loob ng dalawang linggo. pic.twitter.com/UAMcMcC1BQ
— Edson (@EdsonCGuido) August 9, 2020
Roque earlier reasoned that “increased testing” is the reason the Philippines has replaced Indonesia as the Southeast Asian country with the most confirmed COVID-19 case.
“Ibig sabihin po, dahil mas maigting ang ating pagte-test, hindi po totoo na mas maraming kaso tayo kaysa sa Indonesia. Hindi lang nalalaman ng Indonesian kung sino-sino yung mga umiikot na mayroon nang sakit,” said Roque, who is also the spokesman of the Philippine government’s coronavirus task force.
The Philippines recently surpassed 130,000 confirmed coronavirus cases.
