JE C.C.
UniTeam’s Anak-Kalusugan Rep. Mike Defensor recently claimed it is now statistically impossible to close Marcos Jr’s gaping lead in the May 2022 elections opinion polls.
The Quezon City mayoralty candidate declared today, April 7, that there is no way for Vice President Leni Robredo and other presidential candidates, to catch up with UniTeam’s Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr, as suggested by historical data.
“It is now statistically impossible to overtake to overtake Bongbong Marcos and Sara Duterte intime for the May 9 elections” he said. “This shows that the message of unity espoused by both Marcos and Duterte has truly stricken a chord with Filipinos.”
His statement came on the heels of the recent survey results released by the polling firm, Pulse Asia Research Inc., which showed Marcos as still the clear front runner among the candidates.
The survey indicates that Marcos will get 56% of the votes, while his nearest contender, VP Leni Robredo, will have 24%. It is interesting to note, however, that Robredo has risen by 9 points, while Marcos dropped by 4 points. Another interesting angle is Robredo’s surge across classes C,D,E, and her massive increases in Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. Critics are saying the sudden movement in Robredo’s number may be a reflection of her forward momentum, which may finally see her catching up with Marcos Jr’s numbers.
Defensor took the comparative analysis of Pulse Asia’s previous presidential surveys, since 2004, which showed that all eventual winners were also frontrunners in the surveys.
UniTeam also provided figures from the past election opinion polls. In 2004, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo led Pulse Asia’s survey with 34%, against Fernando Poe Jr.s with 31%. In 2010, Benigno ‘Noynoy’ Aquino III, posted a 19-point advantage over ousted president Joseph Estrada, while in 2016, President Rodrigo Duterte had an 11-point lead over Mar Roxas, in the survey.
Defensor, however, failed to consider the race for Vice Presidency, especially that of former Senator and Vice President Jojo Binay, who won the 2010 national elections.
According to survey results from Pulse Asia’s March and April surveys, Binay’s numbers rose from 19% to 28%, before eventually winning the vice presidency with 41.7% of the votes.
Interestingly, Robredo’s March 2022 and Binay’s March 2010 numbers, are not far from each other, with Robredo getting 24% and Binay getting 19%, of the voters, respectively. Should Robredo duplicate Binay’s upward trend, there is a big possibility that she can still overtake the former dictator’s son, in the May 9 polls.
Survey data also shows that about 26% of Marcos Jr’s voters are considered “soft votes”, who can still be swayed to voting another candidate, including Robredo. A twitter user also articulated the scenario which can allow Robredo close Marcos’s commanding lead.
“Binay gained from 21% to 42.5% from Mar. 22 to May 2010 VP elections, or 21.5 percentage points, while Legarda lost 12.9. If Leni successfully repeats that vs. BBM, we’ll end up with 45.5-43.1 in favor of Leni. Given that 26% of BBM’s voters are “soft”, Leni has to get just 75% of BBM’s soft votes, or 10.92, & all of Pacquaio’s 8 points. Meanwhile, Isko can steal the rest of BBM’s soft votes to gain 3.6 points.
“Final standing would be 42.1% Leni, 41.44% BBM, 11.6% Isko, 2% Ping. Uncomfortably close but enough. Good luck, kakampinks.” his tweet reads.
Binay gained from 21% to 42.5% from Mar. 22 to May 2010 VP elections, or 21.5 percentage points, while Legarda lost 12.9. If Leni successfully repeats that vs. BBM, we'll end up with 45.5-43.1 in favor of Leni.
Given that 26% of BBM's voters are "soft", Leni has to get … 1/
— James Miraflor ☝ (@futilityfunc) April 6, 2022
Will that be the case? It’s totally up to the voters.
