Team DailyPedia
Despite leading early surveys for the 2028 presidential race, Vice President Sara Duterte is not guaranteed victory, according to political analyst Andrew Masigan.
In his column for The Philippine Star, Masigan argued that Duterte’s strong support base does not make her a “shoo-in,” citing several vulnerabilities that could impact her chances in the next national elections.
Masigan described Duterte as a candidate with a “durable base” but also a divisive figure.
“All these are why Sara Duterte is not a shoo-in for the presidency. Yes, she is formidable with a durable base – but she is also a polarizing figure, tainted by allegations of corruption and plagued by declining approval ratings,” he said.
He also pointed to what he described as a perceived “China bias” as a potential liability among voters.
“Her China bias is also a disadvantage. All these amid the electorate’s increasing intolerance for corruption, incompetence and treachery could prove to be her Achilles heel,” he added.
Masigan noted that even if Duterte survives a potential impeachment process in the Senate, the political cost could be significant.
“We’ve already seen the narrative flip last week. Bank records showing P6.77 billion passing through the accounts linked to Sara Duterte and Manases Carpio were enough to turn off millions of Filipinos,” he said.
“It revealed true colors, shook public confidence and reinforced festering allegations of corruption.”
While Duterte continues to post relatively high approval ratings, Masigan said the trend is downward, now hovering in the low-50 percent range—far from a dominant position.
He also cited her “hard floor” of around 25–35 percent support, which he said may not be enough to secure a presidential win.
Masigan argued that Duterte could face challenges in highlighting her national track record, particularly from her time as Education secretary and Vice President.
“In terms of positioning, we can expect a striking contrast between Duterte and the good governance candidate,” he said.
“While Duterte will have no choice but to maintain a defensive stance and play the victim, her opponent will focus on the future and what could be – transparency, accountability and competent leadership.”
The analyst emphasized that corruption remains a major concern for voters—second only to the cost of living—and is especially influential among younger and middle-class voters.
He pointed to the 2025 elections, where reform-oriented figures such as Bam Aquino, Kiko Pangilinan, Leila de Lima, and Chel Diokno exceeded expectations.
“The surge in youth turnout – long underestimated by surveys – proved they can shape outcomes. In a two-way presidential race, this shift becomes determinative,” he said.
Masigan also cited past elections, noting that early frontrunners do not always secure victory.
He referenced figures such as Doy Laurel, Jejomar Binay, and Manny Villar as examples of candidates who led early but ultimately fell short.
“Duterte’s early declaration, rather than pre-empting challengers, has effectively given them a longer runway to challenge her,” he said.
